#UCCEconoCon Live Blog

Refresh for updates, thanks to @AudreyEWalsh for some of the quotes

Hello and welcome to my live blog of the UCC Economics Society Economic Conference. There is a great line up of speakers organised and I will be updating this post as the day goes on. Feel free to ask questions in the comments on Twitter (@spiller2 or @corkeconomics) or on Facebook. Todays Timetable:

11:30 – 11:35    Welcome by Stephen Barry, Auditor of UCC Economics Society

11:35 – 11:50    Opening Address by Robbie Butler, UCC Department of Economics

11:50 – 12:50    Panel Discussion 1: Is politics the greatest stumbling block to economic stability? Ciaran Lynch TD, Sinead Ryan and Declan Jordan, Peter Mathews TD and John Considine (Chair)

12:50 – 13:20    Q&A

13:20 – 14:20    Lunch

14:20 – 14:40 “Gaming It: Incentives, Cheating and the Grey Area in Sports” – Declan Jordan

14:40 – 15:40    Panel Discussion 2: The Eurozone – wobbling on a tightrope between growth and debt? Megan Greene, Seamus Coffey, Brendan Keenan, Lorcan Roche-Kelly and Tim Harford (Chair)

15:40 – 16.10 Q&A

16:10 – 16:20    Coffee Break

16.20 – Keynote Speech by Tim Harford

Robbie Butler:

We can go from Primary to University without studying Economics.
We don’t teach basic Economics, how to save, how to spend, how not to spend more then you earn
Interest in Economics has declined since the recession.
Need to capture imagination of young people. Less than 10% leave formal education with education in economics

Panel 1: Is politics the greatest stumbling block to economic stability?

Declan Jordan

Politics isnt the greatest stumbling block to economic stability
Do Governments hinder or help the Economy
13 Countries with good growth had committed, credible and capable Government
Bad decisions and Bad Governments can damage Economies
Electorate needs to incentives “good politicians” with “Good policies”
we tend to see politics as a problem, we get the government we deserve, we elected them
we elected the same government 3 times who had short term views, but we contributed to it

Peter Matthews TD

We’ve had a volatile economic situation here, as opposed to stagnation (Japan) or depressed (Soviet Union)
Unregulated markets has wrecked the real economy.
Read the “Price of Inequality” – Joseph Stiglitz
Also read “Thinking Fast & Slow” by Daniel Kahneman
This country is overburdened by debt which is unsustainable! A debt right down for Ireland would be the right thing to do!
The 11 MEPs need to agree on working together to reduce the €53bn debt

Sinead Ryan

1st lesson of economics is of scarcity, 1st lesson of politics is to ignore the 1st lesson of economics.
Where there is conflict between Economist and Politicians, the tax payer ends up the loser.
Examples are Irish Water, HSE, Bank Crisis and unprofitable routes on public transport
No politician wants to be called brave

Ciaran Lynch TD

If Government is a stumbling block for economic stability if bad policies are followed, its not if good policies are followed.
Everyone now has opinion about economics just as in politics
The financial crisis has both internal and external causes!
Economics does not come with an ideology, just like Politics
Coming out of the current crisis/bailout is an example of how politics can work
Life cycle carbon taxes – there is not enough materials in the world to meet future supply.
Politics does not cause instability but pursuing economic dogma does

Q&A: Question: How do we get the Politician’s we deserve

Economist should provide Electorate with information
Economist should fact check on political policies

“ECB Monetary Policy” – Lorcan Roche Kelly

German Economy is the most important tool to the the ECB
To get where the ECB wants to be, the must do something new. They can’t cut interest rates. Money supply must be managed better!
The crisis that Europe is facing, is not a debt crisis…. it is a growth crisis!
The best thing that happened to the ECB was Trichet leaving the bank and Draghi coming in
The Euro suffers from a publicity problem

“Gaming It: Incentives, Cheating and the Grey Area in Sports” – Declan Jordan

Lots of cheating in sport, Luis Suraz, World Cup 1982, Theire Henry, A-Rod, Lance Armstrong, Maradonna.
Cheating is not new, its easier, they do work hard
Its’ expected
Is bending the rules allowed?
Cheating needs a new definition
Should be defined as Breaking the rules for Advantage

Panel 2: The Eurozone – wobbling on a tightrope between growth and debt?

Brendan Keenan

Eurozone is still a collection of National Economies, cant be compared to USA. Huge disparities between Governments
The eurozone crisis could easily erupt again!
Ireland facing more contraction until 2016, Public spending can grow beyond that if we reach that if international recovery
Is Ireland political willing to continue walking the tightrope? It will still be tough
A Tightrope… doesn’t matter which side you fall off! You fall off! A second bailout would lead to unknown territory.

Megan Greene

Adding an item to the agenda, INFLATION…… it should be growth, solvency and inflation.
It is important to look at 2 different solvency levels: 1) Public Solvency levels 2) External Solvency levels
2014 will be a chronic year for the Eurozone, however next year things should get get better!
Germany has some room to provide some stimulus, but unlikely as its facing a rapid ageing population
German’s population is ageing and while their fiscal policy is good, their future generations will be paying the price.
Banking Union will not be about burden sharing, which was the point
Debt conference in Europe with all the weaker countries (and perhaps France), to restructure debt, is necessary.
The most political likely deal is debt restructuring. It will be politically tough. But rescheduling at least is nessecary

Seamus Coffey

If deflation appears in prices, it might not be too bad. However, if it appears in wages, it would not good!
Deflation also affects Government income, VAT and Duty.
Those most hurt by deflation are those in debt. Most in debt? Governments- where anti deflation comments come
We still havent solved the Banking Crisis
EU needs to become more federal, whether in policy or fiscally, for social project of 1950s to avoid getting stuck
The Burden of the Debt has to go Somewhere

Lorcan Roche Kelly

Eurozone is almost a Co-Op
The Eurozone is a good tempate for a Federalised Europe
We need a really bad crisis for politicians to hand over fiscal power. Seeds are there for that crisis. Sovereign Debt
The answer is more Europe
Integration or Disintegration
We are half way across canyon, if we turn around we will fall off.

Keynote Speech: Tim Harford